Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Under |
| Money | UCF -260 OKST +215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +13 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -5.6 (+7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.2 (-10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -4.6 (+8.4) | 158.1 (-5.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -5.7 (+7.3) | 159.0 (-6.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -5.3 (+7.7) | 158.7 (-5.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -5.5 (+7.5) | 159.2 (-6.2) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | OKST 111 – 104 UCF |
| Jan 7, 2026 | OKST 87 – 76 UCF |
| Feb 20, 2025 | OKST 104 – 95 UCF |
| Mar 12, 2024 | UCF 77 – 62 OKST |
| Feb 29, 2024 | UCF 77 – 71 OKST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | OKST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-17 | 17-18 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 7-13 |
| Home | 13-5 | 13-4 |
| Away | 2-8 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.8 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.4 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#85) | 4.3 (#103) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.38 (#71) | 1.04 (#88) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.54 (#79) | 1.35 (#86) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#105) | 0.501 (#181) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | OKST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 31.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 65.4% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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