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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
21–15 on winners
spread MAE 7.8
36 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
@
Houston
|
+13.4 | 133.7 | 88% | 59–67 | ✓ |
Kentucky
@
Mississippi State
|
+3.3 | 154.6 | 64% | 91–89 | ✗ |
Davidson
@
Dayton
|
+10.8 | 133.1 | 84% | 66–80 | ✓ |
Virginia Tech
@
Syracuse
|
+1.3 | 150.3 | 60% | 71–84 | ✓ |
Pittsburgh
@
Clemson
|
+7.0 | 142.4 | 77% | 62–69 | ✓ |
Wisconsin
@
Indiana
|
-3.4 | 144.8 | 38% | 70–74 | ✗ |
Georgia
@
LSU
|
+3.5 | 151.6 | 67% | 66–67 | ✓ |
George Mason
@
Fordham
|
-3.6 | 139.3 | 35% | 60–61 | ✗ |
Massachusetts
@
George Washington
|
-4.6 | 156.6 | 33% | 69–57 | ✓ |
Loyola Chicago
@
St. Bonaventure
|
+3.7 | 140.3 | 64% | 64–79 | ✓ |
Ball State
@
Central Michigan
|
+2.3 | 132.9 | 62% | 79–71 | ✗ |
Buffalo
@
Kent State
|
+13.7 | 144.7 | 87% | 64–76 | ✓ |
Akron
@
Ohio
|
-1.3 | 139.6 | 45% | 67–74 | ✗ |
Northern Illinois
@
Toledo
|
+11.5 | 154.1 | 87% | 75–72 | ✗ |
Miami (OH)
@
Bowling Green
|
+2.7 | 140.9 | 64% | 66–58 | ✗ |
Western Michigan
@
Eastern Michigan
|
-0.3 | 137.7 | 51% | 67–70 | ✗ |
BYU
@
Kansas
|
+3.8 | 148.6 | 64% | 76–68 | ✗ |
Valparaiso
@
Northern Iowa
|
+12.9 | 143.4 | 88% | 54–68 | ✓ |
UL Monroe
@
Texas State
|
+4.1 | 133.3 | 68% | 55–73 | ✓ |
SIU Edwardsville
@
Eastern Illinois
|
-0.4 | 135.1 | 49% | 79–84 | ✗ |
Wake Forest
@
Notre Dame
|
-7.1 | 135.2 | 27% | 65–70 | ✗ |
NC State
@
Florida State
|
+3.5 | 148.9 | 65% | 83–90 | ✓ |
Texas
@
Texas Tech
|
+3.4 | 144.0 | 67% | 81–69 | ✗ |
Penn State
@
Iowa
|
+6.7 | 158.2 | 75% | 81–90 | ✓ |
UNLV
@
Wyoming
|
-3.7 | 143.0 | 34% | 75–69 | ✓ |
Vanderbilt
@
Arkansas
|
+8.2 | 145.4 | 81% | 85–82 | ✗ |
Boise State
@
Air Force
|
-12.4 | 136.7 | 15% | 79–48 | ✓ |
Utah State
@
Fresno State
|
-10.4 | 141.1 | 17% | 77–73 | ✓ |
Nevada
@
Colorado State
|
+4.8 | 136.9 | 67% | 77–74 | ✗ |
San José State
@
San Diego State
|
+17.3 | 137.7 | 91% | 64–72 | ✓ |
American University
@
Army
|
-3.1 | 124.8 | 36% | 73–51 | ✓ |
Boston University
@
Lehigh
|
+5.3 | 137.9 | 70% | 64–62 | ✗ |
Missouri
@
Florida
|
+13.3 | 156.1 | 88% | 74–83 | ✓ |
Rhode Island
@
VCU
|
+11.0 | 142.1 | 87% | 67–88 | ✓ |
Detroit Mercy
@
Youngstown State
|
+16.3 | 148.0 | 90% | 55–69 | ✓ |
Old Dominion
@
App State
|
+14.3 | 142.7 | 88% | 64–89 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.