I just keep on rolling along with the grace of the Lord above. "Heartbreaker" - Led Zeppelin
Atlantic 10 Conference · Charles E. Smith Center · February 28, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread MASS -7.5 Away covered
O/U 159.0 Under
Money GW +260 / MASS -335
Model Predictions
Spread Total GW win
Actual MASS +12 126 Lost
Massey MASS -5.6 (-6.4)
Massey Totals 164.5 (-38.5)
Bradley-Terry 44%
Weighted B-T 32%
Baseline ML MASS -4.7 (-7.3) 157.5 (-31.5) 30%
Baseline Plus ML MASS -4.3 (-7.7) 158.2 (-32.2) 31%
Efficiency Plus ML MASS -5.7 (-6.3) 158.6 (-32.6) 29%
Baseline Tuned ML MASS -4.6 (-7.4) 156.6 (-30.6) 33%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 22, 2025 GW 7452 MASS
Jan 23, 2025 MASS 7461 GW
Jan 20, 2024 MASS 8167 GW
Jan 7, 2023 GW 8173 MASS
Mar 10, 2022 MASS 9988 GW

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings GW MASS
Overall 15-17 20-11
Conference 4-14 11-7
Home 12-6 13-3
Away 1-9 4-6
Neutral 2-2 3-2
Last 5 0-5 3-2
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 76.4 77.5
Avg Pts Against 77.4 70.7
Massey -1.9 (#193) 7.1 (#81)
Bradley-Terry -0.05 (#175) 0.82 (#111)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.20 (#177) 1.23 (#103)
RPI 0.480 (#215) 0.551 (#88)
Shooting & Four Factors GW MASS
FG% 43.9% 45.6%
3PT% 35.3% 31.5%
REB / G 37.7 38.7
OREB / G 9.5 13.4
AST / TO 0.98 1.43
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.1% 51.0%
TOV% 16.9% 16.0%
ORB% 26.1% 36.6%
FT Rate 25.7% 25.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.6% 48.7%
Opp TOV% 14.2% 19.2%
DRB% 70.6% 70.3%
Opp FT Rate 18.2% 28.3%

Game Analysis

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