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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
13–3 on winners
spread MAE 7.1
16 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Miami
@
North Carolina
|
+12.0 | 154.0 | 87% | 71–75 | ✓ |
West Virginia
@
Kansas State
|
+10.1 | 141.9 | 84% | 90–94 | ✓ |
Maryland Eastern Shore
@
South Carolina State
|
+8.5 | 136.4 | 81% | 56–64 | ✓ |
Delaware State
@
North Carolina Central
|
+5.3 | 138.1 | 71% | 81–93 | ✓ |
Norfolk State
@
Morgan State
|
-5.3 | 140.9 | 27% | 85–82 | ✓ |
Coppin State
@
Howard
|
+11.5 | 138.5 | 87% | 69–78 | ✓ |
Incarnate Word
@
Nicholls
|
+8.4 | 147.8 | 81% | 82–92 | ✓ |
Alabama State
@
Bethune-Cookman
|
+1.5 | 135.2 | 56% | 84–90 | ✓ |
Alabama A&M
@
Florida A&M
|
+0.0 | 139.2 | 50% | 58–76 | ✓ |
McNeese
@
Lamar
|
-7.5 | 144.4 | 22% | 58–56 | ✓ |
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
@
Houston Christian
|
-11.6 | 143.5 | 14% | 91–79 | ✓ |
Texas Southern
@
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
|
-2.5 | 144.3 | 36% | 77–70 | ✓ |
UNC Wilmington
@
Campbell
|
-8.5 | 143.4 | 19% | 100–105 | ✗ |
Prairie View A&M
@
Mississippi Valley State
|
-9.0 | 128.9 | 17% | 51–57 | ✗ |
Baylor
@
TCU
|
+2.4 | 154.7 | 60% | 62–54 | ✗ |
Georgetown
@
Villanova
|
+14.1 | 141.2 | 89% | 47–75 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.