Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | SMU -2500 UTSA +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTSA +4 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | SMU -20.3 (-24.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.4 (-9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -14.2 (-18.2) | 155.0 (-5.0) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -16.6 (-20.6) | 155.8 (-5.8) | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -17.4 (-21.4) | 157.0 (-7.0) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -17.0 (-21.0) | 157.3 (-7.3) | 88% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 5-13 |
| Home | 14-3 | 7-9 |
| Away | 5-8 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 81.6 |
| Massey | 11.5 (#44) | -5.5 (#270) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.27 (#81) | -1.12 (#285) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.82 (#66) | -1.48 (#292) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#73) | 0.438 (#298) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 14.2 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 38.7% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 13.3% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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