Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | GT +130 FSU -167 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GT +9 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | FSU -2.1 (+11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.9 (+11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -1.6 (+10.6) | 146.9 (+14.1) | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GT -0.1 (+8.9) | 148.0 (+13.0) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -1.2 (+10.2) | 145.2 (+15.8) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -1.4 (+10.4) | 145.6 (+15.4) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | FSU 80 – 71 GT |
| Jan 18, 2025 | FSU 91 – 78 GT |
| Jan 4, 2024 | FSU 82 – 71 GT |
| Mar 7, 2023 | GT 61 – 60 FSU |
| Jan 7, 2023 | FSU 75 – 64 GT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GT | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 10-10 |
| Home | 8-7 | 10-7 |
| Away | 4-9 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#137) | 7.4 (#80) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.74 (#115) | 1.27 (#82) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#132) | 1.62 (#81) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#139) | 0.553 (#84) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GT | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.8% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 30.1% |
Game Analysis
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