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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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88–34 on winners spread MAE 7.9 122 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Manhattan @ Siena -0.0 134.8 45% 70–68 ✓
Rider @ Niagara +1.9 147.0 59% 71–61 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Iona +2.5 146.5 65% 82–64 ✗
Fairfield @ Marist +1.1 135.0 49% 55–58 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Canisius +1.1 143.2 57% 56–61 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Jacksonville -0.1 133.6 45% 59–57 ✓
Dartmouth @ Yale +17.4 135.6 90% 56–80 ✓
Marshall @ Georgia State +4.3 144.1 70% 79–82 ✓
Old Dominion @ Georgia Southern +1.5 150.2 64% 75–92 ✓
Harvard @ Brown +0.3 138.8 52% 68–71 ✓
Stetson @ North Florida +0.0 151.2 50% 59–78 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Queens University +0.5 166.5 59% 82–91 ✓
James Madison @ Coastal Carolina -13.0 154.1 12% 86–76 ✓
North Alabama @ Central Arkansas -3.8 151.2 31% 82–78 ✓
Cornell @ Pennsylvania -3.2 152.5 33% 87–81 ✓
Columbia @ Princeton +13.4 142.3 87% 70–84 ✓
UL Monroe @ South Alabama +5.4 143.8 76% 69–80 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Lipscomb +4.6 159.3 72% 67–81 ✓
Bellarmine @ Austin Peay +7.6 141.1 81% 87–90 ✓
Troy @ Texas State -2.2 142.4 45% 79–82 ✗
Southern Miss @ Louisiana +5.9 143.5 77% 61–77 ✓
Dayton @ Loyola Chicago -1.2 136.2 51% 72–77 ✗
Fresno State @ Nevada +15.2 141.1 89% 66–74 ✓
Air Force @ Utah State +16.3 141.1 90% 60–72 ✓
Florida @ South Carolina +2.5 148.9 61% 76–82 ✓
Florida State @ Georgia Tech -1.4 145.6 47% 76–85 ✗
Tulane @ Florida Atlantic +12.7 164.7 88% 73–79 ✓
Villanova @ Providence +1.2 135.0 55% 71–60 ✗
Butler @ DePaul -13.7 151.0 14% 82–63 ✓
Colgate @ Lehigh -3.2 137.9 33% 63–60 ✓
Holy Cross @ Boston University +8.8 131.8 83% 84–94 ✓
Fordham @ Saint Joseph's +8.7 144.2 83% 69–82 ✓
Kansas @ Baylor +5.8 148.1 80% 74–82 ✓
Illinois @ Wisconsin +1.4 157.1 56% 91–83 ✗
Tulsa @ Temple +3.2 145.3 66% 72–67 ✗
Monmouth @ Elon -2.5 146.5 41% 85–70 ✓
Stonehill @ Central Connecticut +11.4 135.5 88% 67–79 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Eastern Michigan -3.8 136.4 33% 52–37 ✓
Wofford @ VMI -13.5 149.5 13% 74–62 ✓
Arkansas @ Kentucky +12.5 168.0 88% 102–111 ✓
Oregon @ Arizona +15.4 157.9 87% 83–103 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Texas +10.5 146.3 85% 65–81 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Radford -0.2 150.5 43% 71–62 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Winthrop +4.1 153.3 71% 65–64 ✗
Charleston Southern @ Presbyterian +5.1 138.5 75% 65–72 ✓
Towson @ UNC Wilmington +5.3 134.5 73% 64–75 ✓
Hofstra @ Charleston +4.3 146.8 72% 76–87 ✓
Hampton @ William & Mary +4.0 138.9 71% 73–85 ✓
Navy @ American University +5.4 131.5 70% 71–65 ✗
George Washington @ La Salle +3.1 155.9 71% 66–72 ✓
Duquesne @ George Mason +3.7 134.3 68% 59–51 ✗
Merrimack @ Sacred Heart -1.9 138.5 40% 85–89 ✗
Western Michigan @ Ball State +4.1 138.9 63% 78–76 ✗
Toledo @ Buffalo -10.3 153.0 16% 85–79 ✓
Mercer @ Furman +7.4 149.7 79% 82–75 ✗
Western Carolina @ Chattanooga +0.9 148.3 60% 82–63 ✗
New Hampshire @ Binghamton +0.5 147.6 53% 74–87 ✓
South Dakota @ North Dakota +5.5 150.0 75% 66–95 ✓
South Dakota State @ North Dakota State -2.0 148.9 44% 78–61 ✓
Marquette @ Creighton +4.1 153.5 76% 75–89 ✓
Massachusetts @ Davidson +0.7 138.5 51% 69–67 ✗
UTSA @ SMU +17.4 157.0 88% 77–73 ✗
The Citadel @ Samford +13.1 151.1 87% 80–92 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Vermont +6.5 138.9 74% 62–74 ✓
Penn State @ Minnesota +5.5 152.4 73% 70–75 ✓
LSU @ Vanderbilt -4.8 145.6 33% 75–61 ✓
Central Michigan @ Kent State +7.4 137.4 78% 73–79 ✓
Lindenwood @ Morehead State +17.9 139.4 90% 49–67 ✓
Iowa State @ UCF -3.4 136.8 36% 60–52 ✓
NC State @ North Carolina +12.4 152.5 88% 70–79 ✓
Mississippi State @ Auburn +9.6 149.3 82% 63–78 ✓
South Florida @ Charlotte +0.4 135.3 48% 76–61 ✗
USC @ Washington +6.6 157.9 78% 82–75 ✗
Howard @ Maryland Eastern Shore -4.3 142.2 28% 70–66 ✓
Wyoming @ Colorado State +13.4 144.3 88% 62–70 ✓
Northeastern @ Drexel +9.1 137.7 82% 59–73 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Campbell +7.2 144.7 76% 62–64 ✓
Delaware @ Stony Brook +1.3 145.9 61% 56–79 ✓
Saint Louis @ Rhode Island +2.5 157.5 64% 94–91 ✗
Norfolk State @ Delaware State -0.3 142.3 49% 71–85 ✗
North Carolina Central @ Coppin State -9.1 134.8 19% 83–58 ✓
Le Moyne @ Saint Francis -2.7 136.1 34% 74–58 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ East Tennessee State -0.8 140.6 46% 65–66 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ Little Rock +10.9 142.7 87% 43–81 ✓
NJIT @ Bryant +10.9 142.7 86% 82–101 ✓
Maine @ UAlbany +1.9 147.3 58% 74–71 ✗
Lamar @ Northwestern State -3.1 145.3 35% 82–77 ✓
UT Arlington @ Utah Valley +1.3 141.5 49% 78–65 ✗
Northern Arizona @ Weber State +11.2 145.5 86% 58–85 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Southern +6.1 139.5 73% 67–61 ✗
South Carolina State @ Morgan State -0.9 146.9 39% 72–61 ✓
High Point @ Longwood -2.0 155.9 43% 72–74 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Wagner +3.7 139.3 63% 57–54 ✗
Tennessee State @ UT Martin +6.3 152.4 79% 87–96 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Western Illinois +3.1 135.5 67% 65–76 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +7.4 136.1 77% 68–80 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Houston Christian -1.9 150.5 43% 98–85 ✓
Alabama State @ Alabama A&M -1.2 137.2 50% 53–58 ✗
Florida A&M @ Grambling +6.4 132.0 77% 68–75 ✓
Army @ Loyola Maryland +0.2 127.1 48% 68–69 ✓
Nicholls @ McNeese +18.1 145.9 89% 62–83 ✓
New Mexico State @ Jacksonville State +6.0 131.6 74% 66–64 ✗
Portland State @ Sacramento State -2.8 132.7 40% 61–73 ✗
Montana @ Idaho -4.4 141.1 32% 80–57 ✓
Montana State @ Eastern Washington +8.7 149.1 83% 104–108 ✓
Wake Forest @ Virginia Tech +0.8 148.3 61% 76–87 ✓
Iowa @ Northwestern +3.6 152.3 71% 87–80 ✗
Virginia @ Duke +11.0 131.4 86% 48–73 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Cleveland State +17.5 146.3 90% 66–75 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Boston College -0.2 145.8 51% 90–65 ✓
Texas Tech @ West Virginia -5.8 148.7 30% 81–70 ✓
Texas A&M @ Georgia +1.6 146.1 57% 70–56 ✗
VCU @ Richmond +4.3 136.1 72% 76–79 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Akron +12.7 138.4 87% 73–80 ✓
Green Bay @ Milwaukee +1.1 145.0 57% 69–90 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Oakland +19.6 147.5 91% 70–75 ✓
Jackson State @ Texas Southern +2.9 137.3 62% 70–80 ✓
New Orleans @ Incarnate Word +4.2 154.1 61% 87–80 ✗
Dartmouth @ Brown +9.4 132.7 83% 67–89 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Florida International -4.7 154.8 35% 83–85 ✗
Alcorn State @ Prairie View A&M -0.9 143.0 34% 73–65 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff +10.4 140.3 87% 69–78 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.