I got a baby's brain and an old man's heart "I'm Eighteen" - Alice Cooper
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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86–36 on winners spread MAE 8.2 122 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Manhattan @ Siena -1.3 135.9 45% 70–68 ✓
Rider @ Niagara +2.9 152.0 61% 71–61 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Iona +4.4 151.5 66% 82–64 ✗
Fairfield @ Marist +1.7 134.1 56% 55–58 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Canisius +1.8 145.9 56% 56–61 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Jacksonville -0.2 133.1 49% 59–57 ✓
Dartmouth @ Yale +20.3 128.8 97% 56–80 ✓
Marshall @ Georgia State +5.5 148.9 69% 79–82 ✓
Old Dominion @ Georgia Southern +1.9 151.9 57% 75–92 ✓
Harvard @ Brown +1.9 140.8 57% 68–71 ✓
Stetson @ North Florida +0.6 151.5 52% 59–78 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Queens University +2.2 176.8 58% 82–91 ✓
James Madison @ Coastal Carolina -16.1 156.5 7% 86–76 ✓
North Alabama @ Central Arkansas -5.2 154.8 32% 82–78 ✓
Cornell @ Pennsylvania -3.5 158.6 37% 87–81 ✓
Columbia @ Princeton +14.2 146.1 90% 70–84 ✓
UL Monroe @ South Alabama +7.1 145.8 74% 69–80 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Lipscomb +5.8 162.7 70% 67–81 ✓
Bellarmine @ Austin Peay +8.6 135.8 78% 87–90 ✓
Troy @ Texas State -3.0 138.3 39% 79–82 ✗
Southern Miss @ Louisiana +8.5 142.9 78% 61–77 ✓
Dayton @ Loyola Chicago -4.3 135.3 35% 72–77 ✗
Fresno State @ Nevada +17.2 139.6 94% 66–74 ✓
Air Force @ Utah State +19.1 141.6 96% 60–72 ✓
Florida @ South Carolina +0.7 151.0 52% 76–82 ✓
Florida State @ Georgia Tech -2.1 150.2 42% 76–85 ✗
Tulane @ Florida Atlantic +14.8 172.0 91% 73–79 ✓
Villanova @ Providence -0.3 134.1 49% 71–60 ✓
Butler @ DePaul -14.7 151.7 9% 82–63 ✓
Colgate @ Lehigh -3.9 142.6 36% 63–60 ✓
Holy Cross @ Boston University +10.7 134.4 84% 84–94 ✓
Fordham @ Saint Joseph's +10.6 148.8 83% 69–82 ✓
Kansas @ Baylor +5.5 151.8 69% 74–82 ✓
Illinois @ Wisconsin +0.6 156.5 52% 91–83 ✗
Tulsa @ Temple +3.6 147.1 63% 72–67 ✗
Monmouth @ Elon -3.2 148.7 38% 85–70 ✓
Stonehill @ Central Connecticut +14.7 136.9 91% 67–79 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Eastern Michigan -4.6 139.1 34% 52–37 ✓
Wofford @ VMI -12.1 155.1 14% 74–62 ✓
Arkansas @ Kentucky +16.3 170.7 93% 102–111 ✓
Oregon @ Arizona +17.1 160.5 94% 83–103 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Texas +11.2 144.4 84% 65–81 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Radford -0.1 147.2 50% 71–62 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Winthrop +6.2 151.2 71% 65–64 ✗
Charleston Southern @ Presbyterian +7.4 139.0 75% 65–72 ✓
Towson @ UNC Wilmington +5.3 134.2 69% 64–75 ✓
Hofstra @ Charleston +3.6 151.0 63% 76–87 ✓
Hampton @ William & Mary +5.9 145.2 70% 73–85 ✓
Navy @ American University +7.2 132.4 74% 71–65 ✗
George Washington @ La Salle +4.0 161.6 64% 66–72 ✓
Duquesne @ George Mason +3.9 134.0 64% 59–51 ✗
Merrimack @ Sacred Heart -1.8 136.8 44% 85–89 ✗
Western Michigan @ Ball State +5.8 144.3 70% 78–76 ✗
Toledo @ Buffalo -12.0 156.5 14% 85–79 ✓
Mercer @ Furman +8.9 148.2 79% 82–75 ✗
Western Carolina @ Chattanooga +1.9 147.7 57% 82–63 ✗
New Hampshire @ Binghamton +0.4 148.1 52% 74–87 ✓
South Dakota @ North Dakota +7.4 153.2 75% 66–95 ✓
South Dakota State @ North Dakota State -2.6 151.7 41% 78–61 ✓
Marquette @ Creighton +3.9 152.6 64% 75–89 ✓
Massachusetts @ Davidson +0.8 142.2 53% 69–67 ✗
UTSA @ SMU +21.0 159.1 97% 77–73 ✗
The Citadel @ Samford +14.7 152.9 91% 80–92 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Vermont +6.2 138.9 71% 62–74 ✓
Penn State @ Minnesota +5.4 151.8 69% 70–75 ✓
LSU @ Vanderbilt -5.6 144.1 31% 75–61 ✓
Central Michigan @ Kent State +10.2 138.5 82% 73–79 ✓
Lindenwood @ Morehead State +21.0 134.4 97% 49–67 ✓
Iowa State @ UCF -6.0 135.1 29% 60–52 ✓
NC State @ North Carolina +13.3 153.8 89% 70–79 ✓
Mississippi State @ Auburn +10.3 144.3 83% 63–78 ✓
South Florida @ Charlotte +1.8 132.8 56% 76–61 ✗
USC @ Washington +7.9 161.2 76% 82–75 ✗
Howard @ Maryland Eastern Shore -5.7 144.8 30% 70–66 ✓
Wyoming @ Colorado State +16.8 144.8 94% 62–70 ✓
Northeastern @ Drexel +9.8 136.1 81% 59–73 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Campbell +8.7 144.1 79% 62–64 ✓
Delaware @ Stony Brook -0.1 146.7 50% 56–79 ✗
Saint Louis @ Rhode Island +4.0 161.3 64% 94–91 ✗
Norfolk State @ Delaware State -0.6 138.6 48% 71–85 ✗
North Carolina Central @ Coppin State -9.7 131.4 19% 83–58 ✓
Le Moyne @ Saint Francis -3.5 139.6 38% 74–58 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ East Tennessee State -0.5 136.9 48% 65–66 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ Little Rock +12.1 146.7 86% 43–81 ✓
NJIT @ Bryant +14.6 145.2 91% 82–101 ✓
Maine @ UAlbany +2.9 146.5 61% 74–71 ✗
Lamar @ Northwestern State -5.1 149.9 32% 82–77 ✓
UT Arlington @ Utah Valley +2.2 141.6 58% 78–65 ✗
Northern Arizona @ Weber State +14.3 143.2 90% 58–85 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Southern +9.2 145.2 80% 67–61 ✗
South Carolina State @ Morgan State -1.8 153.5 43% 72–61 ✓
High Point @ Longwood -1.4 155.8 45% 72–74 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Wagner +5.4 139.3 69% 57–54 ✗
Tennessee State @ UT Martin +7.7 156.0 76% 87–96 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Western Illinois +4.0 131.1 64% 65–76 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +9.1 133.7 80% 68–80 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Houston Christian -0.8 146.8 47% 98–85 ✓
Alabama State @ Alabama A&M -1.1 137.9 46% 53–58 ✗
Florida A&M @ Grambling +7.8 132.9 76% 68–75 ✓
Army @ Loyola Maryland +1.9 121.8 57% 68–69 ✓
Nicholls @ McNeese +17.6 144.2 94% 62–83 ✓
New Mexico State @ Jacksonville State +9.8 130.0 81% 66–64 ✗
Portland State @ Sacramento State -3.2 132.2 39% 61–73 ✗
Montana @ Idaho -5.4 141.9 31% 80–57 ✓
Montana State @ Eastern Washington +10.3 152.7 83% 104–108 ✓
Wake Forest @ Virginia Tech -0.5 151.1 48% 76–87 ✗
Iowa @ Northwestern +3.5 159.2 62% 87–80 ✗
Virginia @ Duke +10.0 124.1 82% 48–73 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Cleveland State +20.2 146.2 97% 66–75 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Boston College -1.0 146.0 46% 90–65 ✓
Texas Tech @ West Virginia -6.8 146.6 27% 81–70 ✓
Texas A&M @ Georgia +0.5 143.6 52% 70–56 ✗
VCU @ Richmond +3.6 131.4 63% 76–79 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Akron +16.5 141.9 93% 73–80 ✓
Green Bay @ Milwaukee +1.7 146.0 56% 69–90 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Oakland +21.5 145.7 97% 70–75 ✓
Jackson State @ Texas Southern +4.1 138.8 65% 70–80 ✓
New Orleans @ Incarnate Word +6.0 159.9 71% 87–80 ✗
Dartmouth @ Brown +11.0 129.7 84% 67–89 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Florida International -5.1 159.9 32% 83–85 ✗
Alcorn State @ Prairie View A&M +0.4 148.8 51% 73–65 ✗
Mississippi Valley State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff +16.8 146.2 94% 69–78 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.