← All models

Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

← Prev day Next day →

40–16 on winners spread MAE 9.0 56 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
UCLA @ Washington State	+9.0	125.1	79%	65–77	✓
Kansas State @ Cincinnati	+6.7	140.1	73%	72–74	✓
Rice @ Wichita State	+6.7	143.2	73%	66–87	✓
Lafayette @ Bucknell	+4.4	127.4	66%	50–60	✓
San Francisco @ Santa Clara	-2.3	145.9	42%	62–69	✗
Columbia @ Pennsylvania	+3.3	150.7	62%	72–84	✓
Robert Morris @ Purdue Fort Wayne	+11.8	153.4	86%	65–83	✓
Northern Kentucky @ Wright State	+6.5	164.8	72%	88–94	✓
Cornell @ Princeton	+7.9	154.9	76%	77–79	✓
Harvard @ Yale	+12.1	139.8	86%	60–80	✓
UTEP @ Liberty	+10.1	139.2	82%	67–51	✗
Xavier @ Georgetown	-9.0	153.5	21%	98–93	✓
Clemson @ Notre Dame	-7.5	131.8	25%	62–69	✗
Houston @ Oklahoma	-8.6	128.2	22%	87–85	✓
Michigan State @ Purdue	+9.9	144.6	82%	74–80	✓
Tennessee @ Alabama	+4.1	167.6	65%	81–74	✗
Syracuse @ Louisville	-5.8	155.4	30%	82–76	✓
New Mexico @ Boise State	+3.3	154.4	62%	79–89	✓
Loyola Marymount @ Portland	-5.7	148.5	30%	60–70	✗
Denver @ St. Thomas-Minnesota	+8.8	155.4	79%	58–83	✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ California Baptist	+12.0	140.9	86%	52–88	✓
Middle Tennessee @ Sam Houston	+10.1	133.6	82%	64–81	✓
UC San Diego @ Cal State Northridge	-4.4	149.7	34%	79–69	✓
Hawai'i @ UC Riverside	-0.1	138.3	50%	76–73	✓
Northern Colorado @ Idaho State	+0.5	155.1	52%	81–79	✗
Ole Miss @ Missouri	-1.9	145.7	43%	84–78	✓
Tarleton State @ Southern Utah	-2.4	150.5	41%	88–83	✓
California @ Utah	+11.2	155.3	84%	59–88	✓
TCU @ BYU	+8.4	158.2	78%	75–87	✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Southern Indiana	+8.7	140.8	79%	70–66	✗
Abilene Christian @ Utah Tech	+0.4	147.4	51%	86–79	✗
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal State Fullerton	+0.7	137.9	52%	70–79	✓
Gonzaga @ Saint Mary's	+4.6	140.0	66%	70–57	✗
San José State @ UNLV	+13.8	142.3	90%	50–68	✓
Pacific @ San Diego	+15.3	150.5	92%	69–81	✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Grand Canyon	+12.9	145.5	88%	58–80	✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Cal Poly	-5.0	129.3	32%	68–56	✓
Long Beach State @ UC Irvine	+12.1	154.3	86%	61–82	✓
Seton Hall @ UConn	+13.7	140.6	89%	61–91	✓
Rider @ Canisius	+1.6	146.5	56%	65–61	✗
Illinois State @ Valparaiso	-3.0	129.9	39%	72–75	✗
Northern Iowa @ Southern Illinois	+4.1	137.3	65%	82–70	✗
UIC @ Missouri State	+4.4	143.1	65%	59–69	✓
Indiana @ Maryland	+8.2	134.0	77%	83–78	✗
Manhattan @ Saint Peter's	+13.6	129.4	89%	57–89	✓
Siena @ Quinnipiac	+19.6	144.1	96%	57–71	✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Niagara	+2.4	148.4	59%	91–72	✗
Iona @ Marist	+3.3	128.5	62%	71–64	✗
East Carolina @ North Texas	+10.1	119.8	82%	69–84	✓
Kansas City @ Oral Roberts	+1.9	146.6	57%	71–54	✗
Bradley @ Drake	+4.4	151.1	65%	66–74	✓
Murray State @ Indiana State	+13.4	151.2	89%	77–89	✓
Michigan @ Ohio State	+9.2	148.8	80%	61–84	✓
Evansville @ Belmont	+9.2	155.2	80%	66–83	✓
UAB @ Memphis	+9.1	160.8	80%	87–106	✓
Rutgers @ Nebraska	+8.2	133.9	77%	56–67	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.