Betting Lines
| Spread | IDST -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | IDST -120 UNCO +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCO +2 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | IDST -0.5 (-2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.1 (+4.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDST -0.9 (-2.9) | 150.2 (+9.8) | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCO -0.0 (-2.0) | 148.5 (+11.5) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IDST -0.4 (-2.4) | 151.5 (+8.5) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IDST -0.3 (-2.3) | 153.3 (+6.7) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | UNCO 69 – 61 IDST |
| Jan 9, 2026 | UNCO 85 – 72 IDST |
| Feb 4, 2025 | UNCO 86 – 72 IDST |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UNCO 93 – 92 IDST |
| Mar 11, 2024 | IDST 83 – 76 UNCO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDST | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-20 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 12-6 |
| Home | 8-5 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-13 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 78.2 |
| Massey | -4.9 (#259) | -2.1 (#200) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#280) | -0.04 (#172) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.05 (#268) | -0.16 (#177) |
| RPI | 0.433 (#307) | 0.494 (#185) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDST | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 48.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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