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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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36–14 on winners spread MAE 12.0 50 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Memphis @ East Carolina	-4.4	146.0	34%	82–58	✓
Longwood @ Gardner-Webb	+2.0	145.7	57%	69–72	✓
William & Mary @ Elon	+4.5	146.3	66%	71–76	✓
Towson @ North Carolina A&T	-9.6	130.9	19%	84–58	✓
Stony Brook @ Drexel	+9.4	137.5	80%	86–90	✓
Northeastern @ Delaware	+7.6	143.0	76%	67–73	✓
Monmouth @ Hampton	-8.5	149.7	22%	56–64	✗
Hofstra @ UNC Wilmington	+4.3	146.2	65%	69–58	✗
Campbell @ Charleston	+15.3	152.1	92%	73–96	✓
Merrimack @ Fairleigh Dickinson	-5.0	145.6	33%	74–55	✓
Long Island University @ Central Connecticut	+13.3	142.1	89%	64–78	✓
Wagner @ Le Moyne	+2.5	129.5	59%	56–70	✓
Sacred Heart @ Stonehill	-4.2	143.6	35%	79–51	✓
UMBC @ NJIT	-1.5	156.3	44%	79–60	✓
New Hampshire @ UAlbany	+2.0	162.2	57%	67–91	✓
UTEP @ Jacksonville State	+5.5	129.7	69%	72–65	✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Morehead State	+21.2	136.8	97%	50–72	✓
South Dakota State @ North Dakota	-1.7	149.2	44%	72–62	✓
North Dakota State @ South Dakota	-2.3	156.6	42%	68–88	✗
Omaha @ St. Thomas-Minnesota	+7.5	137.7	75%	61–88	✓
Stanford @ Utah	+10.6	157.9	83%	68–90	✓
Michigan @ Rutgers	+4.7	137.8	67%	52–82	✓
Tennessee Tech @ UT Martin	+12.1	152.9	87%	69–80	✓
Lindenwood @ Southern Indiana	+10.0	140.2	82%	67–63	✗
Eastern Illinois @ Western Illinois	+6.6	127.7	72%	66–70	✓
Abilene Christian @ Southern Utah	+4.1	153.7	64%	77–68	✗
Santa Clara @ Portland	-10.7	153.4	17%	75–80	✗
Tennessee State @ Little Rock	+6.7	150.2	73%	60–85	✓
Kansas City @ Denver	+4.2	162.0	65%	84–69	✗
Tarleton State @ Utah Tech	-4.3	143.4	35%	85–74	✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Grand Canyon	+23.5	154.1	98%	43–72	✓
Hawai'i @ UC Davis	+1.5	136.9	55%	63–75	✓
New Mexico State @ Liberty	+14.3	138.8	90%	58–83	✓
Northern Colorado @ Weber State	+7.7	156.7	76%	81–85	✓
Northern Arizona @ Idaho State	+8.2	138.5	77%	92–88	✗
Montana State @ Idaho	+0.5	140.5	52%	62–48	✗
Montana @ Eastern Washington	+4.5	156.7	66%	79–89	✓
San Diego @ Loyola Marymount	+6.3	146.9	72%	62–96	✓
Stephen F. Austin @ California Baptist	+2.1	136.4	58%	62–60	✗
UT Arlington @ Seattle U	+7.7	146.1	76%	82–62	✗
UC Irvine @ Cal State Northridge	-7.5	149.0	25%	89–64	✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Long Beach State	+8.0	146.3	77%	76–71	✗
UC San Diego @ Cal State Bakersfield	-5.9	137.2	29%	57–70	✗
Cal Poly @ UC Santa Barbara	+14.7	136.8	91%	75–83	✓
USC @ Washington State	+9.9	142.7	82%	72–75	✓
UCLA @ Washington	+7.3	140.3	75%	77–94	✓
Saint Mary's @ Pepperdine	-14.9	135.6	9%	83–57	✓
Gonzaga @ San Francisco	-1.2	151.0	46%	86–68	✓
Bowling Green @ Ohio	+8.3	151.7	77%	59–66	✓
Arkansas State @ App State	+9.0	151.8	79%	57–80	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.