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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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38–17 on winners spread MAE 8.9 55 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Auburn @ Tennessee +3.5 147.5 62% 84–92 ✓
Providence @ Marquette +10.0 144.1 82% 69–91 ✓
Louisville @ Duke +23.0 153.8 98% 59–84 ✓
North Texas @ Tulane -1.2 144.3 46% 80–76 ✓
Presbyterian @ South Carolina Upstate +2.3 144.6 58% 72–74 ✓
Winthrop @ High Point +7.1 158.9 74% 96–100 ✓
Radford @ Charleston Southern -3.7 137.9 37% 57–58 ✗
Northwestern @ Maryland +3.3 131.4 62% 68–61 ✗
Stetson @ Jacksonville -0.9 140.8 47% 86–73 ✓
DePaul @ Xavier +22.2 149.9 98% 58–91 ✓
Colgate @ Holy Cross -12.7 136.7 12% 77–58 ✓
Lafayette @ Navy +1.5 128.2 56% 58–62 ✓
La Salle @ Duquesne +9.8 143.7 81% 63–75 ✓
Bucknell @ Loyola Maryland -1.5 133.3 45% 68–46 ✓
Mercer @ Chattanooga +8.7 143.1 78% 75–84 ✓
Furman @ Western Carolina +4.7 151.1 66% 77–85 ✓
East Tennessee State @ The Citadel +2.0 132.6 57% 81–63 ✗
VMI @ UNC Greensboro +20.9 149.5 97% 58–100 ✓
Samford @ Wofford -6.9 163.1 26% 69–91 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ Robert Morris -1.2 147.8 46% 70–60 ✓
Milwaukee @ IU Indianapolis -12.2 154.3 13% 75–70 ✓
Green Bay @ Cleveland State +4.8 138.8 67% 69–61 ✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Wright State +4.2 172.8 65% 79–77 ✗
James Madison @ Georgia State -8.7 154.0 21% 84–78 ✓
Marshall @ Georgia Southern -0.9 152.1 47% 73–87 ✗
Florida Gulf Coast @ North Florida +3.9 142.6 64% 79–60 ✗
Arkansas State @ Coastal Carolina -7.8 160.8 24% 71–60 ✓
Oklahoma @ Iowa State +9.6 140.0 81% 45–58 ✓
California @ Colorado +12.1 156.0 86% 78–88 ✓
UCF @ Oklahoma State -1.0 138.4 46% 77–71 ✓
Tulsa @ UTSA -1.3 163.2 45% 73–89 ✗
Wichita State @ UAB +6.1 149.7 71% 74–66 ✗
Temple @ Rice +4.6 146.8 66% 65–43 ✗
Drake @ UIC -8.1 145.1 23% 107–105 ✓
Belmont @ Murray State +3.7 150.5 63% 83–61 ✗
Missouri State @ Illinois State +2.4 132.6 59% 74–75 ✓
Indiana State @ Evansville -11.2 157.7 15% 85–67 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Bradley +6.3 137.5 72% 67–86 ✓
Richmond @ Saint Louis -6.9 149.0 26% 80–64 ✓
Bellarmine @ Lipscomb +12.3 148.8 87% 74–90 ✓
Southern Miss @ South Alabama +2.8 146.0 60% 70–73 ✓
Troy @ Louisiana +3.4 148.5 62% 87–73 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Austin Peay +2.1 147.4 58% 79–83 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Western Kentucky -2.8 145.7 40% 90–84 ✓
South Carolina @ Texas A&M +2.8 132.5 60% 70–68 ✗
St. John's @ Butler +0.8 154.5 53% 82–59 ✗
Seton Hall @ Creighton +10.7 145.1 83% 64–85 ✓
Minnesota @ Illinois +11.8 156.1 86% 97–105 ✓
Alabama @ Ole Miss -9.4 167.3 20% 103–88 ✓
Virginia @ Boston College +0.6 125.2 52% 72–68 ✗
Arizona @ Arizona State -16.2 156.3 7% 85–67 ✓
Oregon State @ Oregon +12.2 141.9 87% 71–78 ✓
Maine @ Binghamton -0.0 131.6 50% 74–76 ✗
Nebraska @ Ohio State +1.3 145.9 55% 69–78 ✓
Bryant @ UMass Lowell +6.5 155.2 72% 67–89 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.