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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
21–15 on winners
spread MAE 8.4
36 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
@
Houston
|
+15.6 | 129.9 | 92% | 59–67 | ✓ |
Kentucky
@
Mississippi State
|
+1.3 | 158.1 | 55% | 91–89 | ✗ |
Davidson
@
Dayton
|
+10.6 | 131.8 | 83% | 66–80 | ✓ |
Virginia Tech
@
Syracuse
|
-0.8 | 151.0 | 47% | 71–84 | ✗ |
Pittsburgh
@
Clemson
|
+5.9 | 143.8 | 71% | 62–69 | ✓ |
Wisconsin
@
Indiana
|
-6.1 | 144.7 | 29% | 70–74 | ✗ |
Georgia
@
LSU
|
+3.8 | 152.8 | 64% | 66–67 | ✓ |
George Mason
@
Fordham
|
-4.1 | 141.3 | 35% | 60–61 | ✗ |
Massachusetts
@
George Washington
|
-6.2 | 165.0 | 29% | 69–57 | ✓ |
Loyola Chicago
@
St. Bonaventure
|
+5.2 | 138.2 | 68% | 64–79 | ✓ |
Ball State
@
Central Michigan
|
+2.6 | 135.0 | 59% | 79–71 | ✗ |
Buffalo
@
Kent State
|
+17.2 | 147.4 | 94% | 64–76 | ✓ |
Akron
@
Ohio
|
-1.8 | 142.5 | 44% | 67–74 | ✗ |
Northern Illinois
@
Toledo
|
+15.3 | 160.9 | 92% | 75–72 | ✗ |
Miami (OH)
@
Bowling Green
|
+3.7 | 145.7 | 63% | 66–58 | ✗ |
Western Michigan
@
Eastern Michigan
|
-0.6 | 141.7 | 48% | 67–70 | ✗ |
BYU
@
Kansas
|
+1.7 | 152.6 | 56% | 76–68 | ✗ |
Valparaiso
@
Northern Iowa
|
+13.9 | 142.3 | 90% | 54–68 | ✓ |
UL Monroe
@
Texas State
|
+6.8 | 132.3 | 73% | 55–73 | ✓ |
SIU Edwardsville
@
Eastern Illinois
|
+0.5 | 133.8 | 52% | 79–84 | ✓ |
Wake Forest
@
Notre Dame
|
-8.4 | 135.1 | 22% | 65–70 | ✗ |
NC State
@
Florida State
|
+2.8 | 151.4 | 60% | 83–90 | ✓ |
Texas
@
Texas Tech
|
+3.7 | 144.3 | 63% | 81–69 | ✗ |
Penn State
@
Iowa
|
+7.9 | 166.8 | 76% | 81–90 | ✓ |
UNLV
@
Wyoming
|
-5.5 | 145.7 | 31% | 75–69 | ✓ |
Vanderbilt
@
Arkansas
|
+9.6 | 144.8 | 81% | 85–82 | ✗ |
Boise State
@
Air Force
|
-12.4 | 136.2 | 13% | 79–48 | ✓ |
Utah State
@
Fresno State
|
-11.6 | 146.3 | 15% | 77–73 | ✓ |
Nevada
@
Colorado State
|
+4.6 | 139.0 | 66% | 77–74 | ✗ |
San José State
@
San Diego State
|
+21.8 | 140.3 | 98% | 64–72 | ✓ |
American University
@
Army
|
-1.6 | 121.7 | 44% | 73–51 | ✓ |
Boston University
@
Lehigh
|
+6.1 | 140.9 | 71% | 64–62 | ✗ |
Missouri
@
Florida
|
+14.9 | 160.2 | 91% | 74–83 | ✓ |
Rhode Island
@
VCU
|
+12.2 | 142.2 | 87% | 67–88 | ✓ |
Detroit Mercy
@
Youngstown State
|
+23.1 | 148.5 | 98% | 55–69 | ✓ |
Old Dominion
@
App State
|
+16.7 | 142.3 | 94% | 64–89 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.