← All models
Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
14–2 on winners
spread MAE 7.4
16 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Miami
@
North Carolina
|
+14.3 | 155.6 | 90% | 71–75 | ✓ |
West Virginia
@
Kansas State
|
+10.5 | 140.2 | 83% | 90–94 | ✓ |
Maryland Eastern Shore
@
South Carolina State
|
+10.7 | 141.5 | 83% | 56–64 | ✓ |
Delaware State
@
North Carolina Central
|
+6.9 | 137.2 | 73% | 81–93 | ✓ |
Norfolk State
@
Morgan State
|
-6.0 | 146.5 | 29% | 85–82 | ✓ |
Coppin State
@
Howard
|
+15.2 | 139.8 | 92% | 69–78 | ✓ |
Incarnate Word
@
Nicholls
|
+9.6 | 151.3 | 81% | 82–92 | ✓ |
Alabama State
@
Bethune-Cookman
|
+1.7 | 137.1 | 56% | 84–90 | ✓ |
Alabama A&M
@
Florida A&M
|
+1.7 | 145.4 | 56% | 58–76 | ✓ |
McNeese
@
Lamar
|
-9.1 | 150.3 | 20% | 58–56 | ✓ |
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
@
Houston Christian
|
-12.3 | 144.7 | 13% | 91–79 | ✓ |
Texas Southern
@
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
|
-1.7 | 151.2 | 44% | 77–70 | ✓ |
UNC Wilmington
@
Campbell
|
-9.3 | 143.2 | 20% | 100–105 | ✗ |
Prairie View A&M
@
Mississippi Valley State
|
-11.9 | 135.0 | 14% | 51–57 | ✗ |
Baylor
@
TCU
|
-0.7 | 161.3 | 47% | 62–54 | ✓ |
Georgetown
@
Villanova
|
+16.8 | 142.8 | 94% | 47–75 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.