I want the bomb, I want the P-Funk, I want my funk uncut. "P-Funk (Wants to Get Funked Up)" - Parliament
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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75–32 on winners spread MAE 8.2 107 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Northern Kentucky +0.3 136.8 56% 49–59 ✓
Rhode Island @ Dayton +5.5 128.0 72% 51–53 ✓
Fairfield @ Rider -2.5 135.1 40% 76–65 ✓
Manhattan @ Saint Peter's +4.9 137.8 72% 51–77 ✓
Niagara @ Siena -1.1 132.2 47% 56–60 ✗
Ohio @ Buffalo +1.2 149.3 58% 74–53 ✗
Akron @ Toledo +11.9 139.7 86% 76–84 ✓
Marist @ Quinnipiac +0.2 140.8 53% 87–94 ✓
Cleveland State @ Wright State +0.5 150.2 48% 71–67 ✗
UNLV @ Colorado State +12.1 143.9 86% 88–74 ✗
San José State @ New Mexico +8.0 147.9 80% 70–86 ✓
Boise State @ Fresno State +1.2 123.2 53% 68–63 ✗
Duke @ Louisville -7.4 142.0 20% 74–65 ✓
LSU @ TCU -2.8 127.0 34% 68–77 ✗
La Salle @ Davidson +14.2 143.9 87% 69–77 ✓
Wichita State @ Tulane +2.0 140.2 58% 66–67 ✓
Georgetown @ Butler +4.3 140.3 71% 53–56 ✓
Miami @ Georgia Tech -3.7 145.3 33% 73–62 ✓
Michigan @ Michigan State +6.7 138.0 77% 67–83 ✓
Lafayette @ Army +4.8 141.1 69% 56–60 ✓
Arkansas State @ Coastal Carolina +3.6 140.1 65% 73–66 ✗
East Tennessee State @ VMI +3.9 152.9 68% 79–83 ✓
Chattanooga @ The Citadel -8.9 146.0 18% 75–62 ✓
Oklahoma @ Auburn +10.7 140.8 83% 68–86 ✓
Xavier @ Creighton -1.0 137.7 47% 74–64 ✓
Missouri @ Iowa State +13.2 132.1 86% 50–67 ✓
American University @ Navy +13.1 132.1 88% 45–47 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ UTSA -7.0 140.1 23% 73–64 ✓
High Point @ Campbell +5.4 130.4 71% 72–77 ✓
NC State @ North Carolina +8.4 153.5 80% 80–100 ✓
Dartmouth @ Columbia -6.1 141.3 26% 76–63 ✓
UMBC @ Binghamton -1.1 138.9 48% 70–68 ✓
Maine @ Vermont +21.4 139.4 91% 68–81 ✓
Milwaukee @ Youngstown State +5.1 141.7 72% 72–86 ✓
Illinois State @ Northern Iowa +4.7 155.6 72% 64–79 ✓
Saint Louis @ Duquesne -7.3 140.4 23% 77–53 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ St. Bonaventure +5.5 141.1 75% 69–80 ✓
Samford @ Western Carolina -1.0 151.5 48% 74–64 ✓
Drexel @ Towson +7.0 137.2 77% 62–66 ✓
West Virginia @ Arkansas +7.0 141.1 76% 68–77 ✓
Arizona State @ Arizona +20.1 147.6 91% 56–67 ✓
Indiana @ Maryland -1.2 141.2 47% 68–55 ✓
Temple @ SMU +8.1 138.2 79% 61–69 ✓
UT Martin @ Belmont +17.0 148.3 90% 58–87 ✓
Rice @ Southern Miss -6.0 143.9 27% 76–62 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Western Kentucky +1.5 142.8 56% 93–85 ✗
Utah Tech @ Chicago State -2.4 146.1 39% 79–65 ✓
Winthrop @ Longwood +5.5 145.8 71% 88–92 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Florida State +2.5 137.1 61% 85–72 ✗
UIC @ Oakland +12.3 147.3 88% 74–81 ✓
Georgia State @ UL Monroe +1.1 142.2 54% 73–62 ✗
St. Thomas @ Western Illinois +4.3 157.4 71% 52–81 ✓
North Dakota State @ South Dakota State +12.0 155.4 87% 76–80 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Eastern Michigan +0.5 148.6 53% 75–85 ✓
Western Michigan @ Ball State +8.9 147.4 82% 72–83 ✓
Baylor @ Alabama -2.1 150.6 37% 78–87 ✗
Norfolk State @ South Carolina State -6.5 144.5 25% 87–69 ✓
Howard @ North Carolina Central -0.8 145.1 46% 75–74 ✓
Long Beach State @ UC Davis +0.3 143.6 53% 70–63 ✗
Southern @ Alcorn State -1.3 144.0 45% 64–68 ✗
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Coppin State +2.5 140.8 63% 64–61 ✗
North Texas @ Louisiana Tech +3.2 131.3 61% 63–62 ✗
Portland State @ Northern Arizona +2.8 140.0 62% 97–76 ✗
Kansas State @ Ole Miss -0.5 130.8 46% 56–67 ✗
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Northwestern State -7.5 147.5 21% 76–90 ✗
Sam Houston @ Seattle U +5.1 137.5 73% 63–78 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Lamar -9.5 140.5 18% 85–82 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Presbyterian +0.8 131.5 52% 68–67 ✗
South Carolina Upstate @ North Carolina A&T +4.0 144.6 65% 84–64 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Stetson -2.4 141.1 40% 95–113 ✗
Little Rock @ App State +10.2 135.8 86% 57–72 ✓
VCU @ Richmond +1.5 131.6 56% 64–62 ✗
Oral Roberts @ Denver -5.6 151.5 27% 89–80 ✓
Northeastern @ Charleston +5.7 146.6 74% 63–81 ✓
Elon @ William & Mary -3.0 140.7 37% 61–65 ✗
Delaware @ James Madison +0.3 147.7 50% 85–69 ✗
Central Michigan @ Northern Illinois +7.3 144.2 77% 69–63 ✗
Oklahoma State @ Florida +5.3 135.2 68% 72–81 ✓
St. John's @ Villanova +12.5 143.3 87% 62–73 ✓
Illinois @ Northwestern -3.0 147.6 35% 59–56 ✓
Tennessee State @ Eastern Illinois -7.2 130.4 22% 57–62 ✗
Radford @ Gardner-Webb +8.2 130.0 77% 42–61 ✓
Utah @ Washington +1.9 139.3 60% 73–77 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Mississippi Valley State -1.1 145.4 45% 74–68 ✓
Incarnate Word @ SE Louisiana +9.4 148.5 85% 68–78 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Southeast Missouri State +2.1 155.3 56% 77–85 ✓
Morehead State @ Murray State +12.7 139.3 87% 66–77 ✓
Grambling @ Jackson State +3.9 129.7 67% 73–64 ✗
Florida A&M @ Alabama A&M -1.8 129.4 40% 65–60 ✓
Saint Francis @ Mount St. Mary's +5.8 135.0 73% 54–71 ✓
Lipscomb @ North Florida +1.5 146.0 57% 77–74 ✗
UT Arlington @ Texas State +4.8 138.0 71% 53–58 ✓
North Dakota @ South Dakota +11.8 149.8 88% 58–71 ✓
Kent State @ Bowling Green +0.8 145.0 56% 91–83 ✗
Hampton @ Charleston Southern -0.7 133.2 42% 78–74 ✓
North Alabama @ Kennesaw State +9.2 137.2 79% 71–58 ✗
Kentucky @ Kansas +5.9 160.2 72% 80–62 ✗
Mississippi State @ Texas Tech +9.7 142.4 82% 50–76 ✓
Texas Southern @ Prairie View A&M -5.9 142.1 28% 75–74 ✓
Idaho @ Montana State +12.3 151.1 88% 64–70 ✓
Virginia @ Notre Dame +5.5 130.8 72% 65–69 ✓
Yale @ Princeton +3.6 151.1 72% 80–74 ✗
Central Arkansas @ Jacksonville +11.3 140.3 86% 59–79 ✓
Furman @ Mercer -4.5 142.3 32% 80–50 ✓
Georgia @ Vanderbilt +10.2 142.2 84% 77–85 ✓
UConn @ DePaul -5.7 149.4 27% 57–50 ✓
Rutgers @ Nebraska -2.4 143.0 39% 63–61 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.