Betting Lines
| Spread | IU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IU +13 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | IU -1.8 (-11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.8 (-13.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IU -1.0 (-12.0) | 141.9 (-18.9) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IU -1.2 (-11.8) | 141.2 (-18.2) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IU -1.2 (-11.8) | 142.2 (-19.2) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IU -0.6 (-12.4) | 142.6 (-19.6) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 7, 2026 | IU 84 – 66 MD |
| Jan 26, 2025 | MD 79 – 78 IU |
| Mar 3, 2024 | IU 83 – 78 MD |
| Dec 2, 2023 | IU 65 – 53 MD |
| Mar 11, 2023 | IU 70 – 60 MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | IU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 9-11 |
| Home | 10-8 | 14-4 |
| Away | 3-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#83) | 11.7 (#30) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#95) | 2.00 (#48) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.39 (#92) | 2.62 (#42) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#95) | 0.583 (#50) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | IU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 43.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.4% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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