Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +10 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | SAM -1.2 (-8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.4 (-16.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -1.5 (-8.5) | 150.8 (-12.8) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -1.0 (-9.0) | 151.5 (-13.5) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -0.7 (-9.3) | 152.1 (-14.1) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -0.8 (-9.2) | 151.0 (-13.0) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | SAM 88 – 74 WCU |
| Jan 8, 2026 | SAM 82 – 77 WCU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | SAM 93 – 72 WCU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | SAM 88 – 69 WCU |
| Feb 15, 2024 | SAM 88 – 62 WCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WCU | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 10-8 |
| Home | 8-5 | 13-2 |
| Away | 2-14 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.2 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -7.6 (#298) | -3.0 (#231) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#234) | 0.10 (#169) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.91 (#238) | -0.13 (#189) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#228) | 0.492 (#182) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WCU | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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