Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | DEP +360 CONN -440 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +7 | 107 | Lost |
| Massey | CONN -7.2 (+0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.1 (-44.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -7.1 (+0.1) | 148.4 (-41.4) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -5.7 (-1.3) | 149.4 (-42.4) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -5.9 (-1.1) | 148.7 (-41.7) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -5.0 (-2.0) | 150.5 (-43.5) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | CONN 72 – 60 DEP |
| Dec 21, 2025 | CONN 72 – 54 DEP |
| Jan 30, 2025 | CONN 72 – 61 DEP |
| Jan 1, 2025 | CONN 81 – 68 DEP |
| Feb 15, 2024 | CONN 101 – 65 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEP | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 13-6 |
| Home | 11-7 | 14-2 |
| Away | 4-9 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 65.3 |
| Massey | 5.5 (#94) | 16.1 (#14) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#94) | 2.98 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.52 (#87) | 3.95 (#14) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#131) | 0.604 (#31) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEP | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 42.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 14.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 38.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 44.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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