Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SBU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SBU +11 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | SBU -6.8 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (+6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -8.7 (+2.3) | 139.8 (+9.2) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SBU -5.5 (+5.5) | 141.1 (+7.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SBU -6.6 (+4.4) | 141.3 (+7.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SBU -6.1 (+4.9) | 139.8 (+9.2) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | JOES 71 – 65 SBU |
| Jan 15, 2026 | JOES 68 – 64 SBU |
| Feb 27, 2025 | JOES 75 – 64 SBU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | SBU 91 – 72 JOES |
| Feb 26, 2023 | SBU 89 – 76 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SBU | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 11-19 |
| Conference | 12-5 | 5-13 |
| Home | 13-2 | 9-7 |
| Away | 7-4 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 4.6 (#106) | 1.1 (#143) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.43 (#75) | -0.05 (#182) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.54 (#86) | 0.12 (#166) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#67) | 0.498 (#175) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SBU | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 17.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.2% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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