Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -14.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +2 | 92 | Won |
| Massey | NAVY -18.3 (-16.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.9 (-36.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -14.3 (-12.3) | 127.0 (-35.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -13.1 (-11.1) | 132.1 (-40.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -13.3 (-11.3) | 133.2 (-41.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -13.2 (-11.2) | 131.3 (-39.3) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | NAVY 82 – 73 AMER |
| Jan 13, 2026 | AMER 65 – 51 NAVY |
| Mar 12, 2025 | AMER 74 – 52 NAVY |
| Feb 27, 2025 | NAVY 68 – 60 AMER |
| Jan 3, 2025 | NAVY 81 – 58 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 5-13 |
| Home | 9-6 | 6-5 |
| Away | 11-5 | 4-16 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 63.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.8 | 70.9 |
| Massey | 1.8 (#134) | -13.2 (#341) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#173) | -1.94 (#319) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#156) | -2.35 (#318) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#180) | 0.388 (#336) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 15.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.