Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Over |
| Money | TOL -360 AKR +285 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +8 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -12.0 (-4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.1 (+22.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -10.6 (-2.6) | 138.1 (+21.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -11.9 (-3.9) | 139.7 (+20.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -10.7 (-2.7) | 139.3 (+20.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -11.1 (-3.1) | 139.2 (+20.8) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | AKR 79 – 76 TOL |
| Jan 28, 2026 | AKR 91 – 81 TOL |
| Mar 14, 2025 | AKR 100 – 90 TOL |
| Mar 5, 2025 | AKR 96 – 87 TOL |
| Jan 15, 2025 | AKR 85 – 78 TOL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 14-6 |
| Home | 13-2 | 12-3 |
| Away | 9-5 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 63.9 |
| Massey | 8.5 (#62) | -0.1 (#166) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.85 (#56) | 0.49 (#135) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.24 (#55) | 0.44 (#139) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#43) | 0.516 (#151) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.4% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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