Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.0 Under |
| Money | SPU -260 MAN +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +26 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | SPU -7.3 (+18.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.6 (-9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -5.8 (+20.2) | 135.7 (-7.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -4.9 (+21.1) | 137.8 (-9.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -5.2 (+20.8) | 138.4 (-10.4) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SPU -4.8 (+21.2) | 138.2 (-10.2) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | SPU 75 – 65 MAN |
| Feb 6, 2026 | SPU 80 – 75 MAN |
| Feb 8, 2025 | MAN 84 – 83 SPU |
| Dec 7, 2024 | MAN 70 – 67 SPU |
| Mar 3, 2024 | SPU 89 – 57 MAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SPU | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 15-15 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 8-12 |
| Home | 9-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 7-7 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 6-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.4 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.9 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -1.3 (#195) | -5.3 (#262) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#184) | -0.01 (#179) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#180) | -0.49 (#210) |
| RPI | 0.517 (#149) | 0.490 (#186) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SPU | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.1% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.1% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 33.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.0% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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