All your compliments and your cutting remarks are captured here in my quotation marks. "Everyday I Write the Book" - Elvis Costello
Dayton Flyers
53 51
FINAL Conference
Rhode Island Rams
Atlantic 10 Conference · UD Arena · January 29, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread DAY -6.0 Away covered
O/U 125.0 Under
Money DAY -250 / URI +205
Model Predictions
Spread Total DAY win
Actual DAY +2 104 Won
Massey DAY -6.5 (-4.5)
Massey Totals 122.0 (-18.0)
Bradley-Terry 77%
Weighted B-T 76%
Efficiency Plus ML DAY -6.5 (-4.5) 125.7 (-21.7) 75%
Baseline Tuned ML DAY -5.5 (-3.5) 128.0 (-24.0) 72%
Baseline ML DAY -5.5 (-3.5) 128.6 (-24.6) 69%
Baseline Plus ML DAY -5.3 (-3.3) 127.3 (-23.3) 72%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 28, 2026 URI 8176 DAY
Feb 27, 2025 DAY 8577 URI
Jan 20, 2024 DAY 9662 URI
Jan 26, 2023 URI 7570 DAY
Feb 15, 2022 DAY 6357 URI

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings DAY URI
Overall 24-11 15-16
Conference 14-4 5-12
Home 13-4 10-5
Away 7-6 3-9
Neutral 4-1 2-2
Last 5 4-1 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 69.2 67.0
Avg Pts Against 61.2 65.3
Massey 7.7 (#74) 4.6 (#107)
Bradley-Terry 0.97 (#101) 0.31 (#147)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.28 (#100) 0.76 (#119)
RPI 0.537 (#107) 0.529 (#122)
Shooting & Four Factors DAY URI
FG% 47.6% 48.2%
3PT% 34.0% 34.8%
REB / G 35.5 34.5
OREB / G 9.6 8.5
AST / TO 1.01 1.04
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.7% 53.3%
TOV% 21.5% 20.0%
ORB% 31.7% 27.8%
FT Rate 22.6% 26.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.5% 44.5%
Opp TOV% 18.2% 20.4%
DRB% 76.8% 70.4%
Opp FT Rate 15.7% 26.7%

Game Analysis

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