Hmm, you're so pretty, not to talk to you would be a crime. "Baby, Baby" - The Vibrators
Dayton Flyers
76 81 OT
FINAL Conference
Rhode Island Rams
Atlantic 10 Conference · UD Arena · January 28, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread DAY -9.5 Away covered
O/U 138.5 Over
Money DAY -440 / URI +340
Model Predictions
Spread Total DAY win
Actual URI +5 157 Lost
Massey DAY -6.2 (-11.2)
Massey Totals 137.1 (+19.9)
Bradley-Terry 73%
Weighted B-T 72%
Efficiency Plus ML DAY -5.8 (-10.8) 135.4 (+21.6) 76%
Baseline Tuned ML DAY -5.6 (-10.6) 134.6 (+22.4) 72%
Baseline ML DAY -5.3 (-10.3) 135.1 (+21.9) 73%
Baseline Plus ML DAY -5.3 (-10.3) 135.9 (+21.1) 72%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 27, 2025 DAY 8577 URI
Jan 20, 2024 DAY 9662 URI
Jan 26, 2023 URI 7570 DAY
Feb 15, 2022 DAY 6357 URI
Jan 29, 2022 DAY 5351 URI

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings DAY URI
Overall 25-12 16-16
Conference 12-6 7-11
Home 14-4 10-6
Away 8-5 4-7
Neutral 3-3 2-3
Last 5 3-2 3-2
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 74.1 69.9
Avg Pts Against 69.3 68.2
Massey 6.8 (#89) 3.8 (#112)
Bradley-Terry 0.98 (#90) 0.55 (#120)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.23 (#96) 0.89 (#106)
RPI 0.552 (#82) 0.517 (#136)
Shooting & Four Factors DAY URI
FG% 44.9% 45.6%
3PT% 32.3% 30.5%
REB / G 33.2 33.1
OREB / G 9.1 10.8
AST / TO 1.26 0.89
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.7% 52.2%
TOV% 16.2% 18.9%
ORB% 27.0% 33.3%
FT Rate 34.7% 27.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.1% 50.6%
Opp TOV% 23.4% 21.3%
DRB% 68.7% 68.9%
Opp FT Rate 22.0% 29.0%

Game Analysis

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