Betting Lines
| Spread | BOIS -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 119.5 Over |
| Money | FRES +105 BOIS -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BOIS +5 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | FRES -1.0 (-6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 112.8 (+18.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BOIS -0.2 (-4.8) | 122.8 (+8.2) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -1.2 (-6.2) | 123.2 (+7.8) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -0.9 (-5.9) | 125.1 (+5.9) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -0.8 (-5.8) | 122.7 (+8.3) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | BOIS 69 – 53 FRES |
| Mar 2, 2025 | BOIS 66 – 61 FRES |
| Feb 1, 2025 | BOIS 82 – 60 FRES |
| Feb 18, 2024 | BOIS 90 – 66 FRES |
| Jan 24, 2024 | BOIS 72 – 68 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | BOIS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 15-3 |
| Home | 14-4 | 13-3 |
| Away | 6-8 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | W4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.0 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 59.6 | 61.0 |
| Massey | 8.3 (#66) | 10.6 (#42) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.46 (#73) | 2.16 (#37) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.93 (#66) | 2.54 (#46) |
| RPI | 0.565 (#76) | 0.604 (#32) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | BOIS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 45.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 76.7% | 78.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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