Betting Lines
| Spread | TXST -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +5 | 111 | Won |
| Massey | TXST -7.0 (-2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.9 (-22.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXST -5.8 (-0.8) | 135.2 (-24.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -4.8 (+0.2) | 138.0 (-27.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -5.3 (-0.3) | 139.5 (-28.5) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -5.1 (-0.1) | 136.4 (-25.4) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 29, 2024 | UTA 80 – 72 TXST |
| Nov 25, 2023 | TXST 73 – 66 UTA |
| Dec 11, 2022 | TXST 71 – 65 UTA |
| Jan 28, 2022 | UTA 70 – 58 TXST |
| Feb 13, 2021 | TXST 79 – 68 UTA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXST | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-8 | 11-18 |
| Conference | 12-3 | 7-10 |
| Home | 12-1 | 8-4 |
| Away | 7-6 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.3 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.3 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#156) | -3.3 (#234) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#137) | -0.19 (#194) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#141) | -0.03 (#179) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#140) | 0.482 (#199) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXST | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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