Betting Lines
| Spread | TXST -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTA +12 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | TXST -2.0 (+14.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.0 (-6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXST -2.6 (+14.6) | 132.9 (-4.9) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -1.5 (+13.5) | 137.8 (-9.8) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -1.8 (+13.8) | 139.0 (-11.0) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -2.2 (+14.2) | 135.5 (-7.5) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 29, 2024 | UTA 80 – 72 TXST |
| Nov 25, 2023 | TXST 73 – 66 UTA |
| Dec 11, 2022 | TXST 71 – 65 UTA |
| Jan 29, 2022 | TXST 58 – 53 UTA |
| Feb 13, 2021 | TXST 79 – 68 UTA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTA | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-18 | 21-8 |
| Conference | 7-10 | 12-3 |
| Home | 8-4 | 12-1 |
| Away | 3-13 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.8 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 65.3 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#243) | 1.4 (#138) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#202) | 0.87 (#107) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.24 (#193) | 0.81 (#118) |
| RPI | 0.471 (#217) | 0.540 (#104) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTA | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.6% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 22.7% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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