Betting Lines
| Spread | UTA -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Over |
| Money | UTA -278 TXST +222 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +7 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | UTA -8.1 (-15.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.0 (+5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTA -3.6 (-10.6) | 137.3 (+1.7) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTA -5.3 (-12.3) | 135.7 (+3.3) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTA -6.1 (-13.1) | 136.1 (+2.9) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTA -6.3 (-13.3) | 136.7 (+2.3) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 29, 2024 | UTA 80 – 72 TXST |
| Dec 11, 2022 | TXST 71 – 65 UTA |
| Jan 29, 2022 | TXST 58 – 53 UTA |
| Jan 28, 2022 | UTA 70 – 58 TXST |
| Feb 13, 2021 | TXST 79 – 68 UTA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTA | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 17-18 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 12-3 | 9-4 |
| Away | 5-10 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.4 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#179) | -1.9 (#209) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#165) | -0.95 (#253) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#169) | -1.40 (#252) |
| RPI | 0.499 (#173) | 0.412 (#282) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTA | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 24.8% |
| REB / G | 44.0 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 15.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 43.6% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 37.0% | 38.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 9.9% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 32.4% |
Game Analysis
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