Betting Lines
| Spread | TXST -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Over |
| Money | TXST -200 UTA +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +6 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | TXST -3.2 (+2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.8 (+15.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXST -3.2 (+2.8) | 126.6 (+9.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -1.9 (+4.1) | 128.9 (+7.1) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -2.1 (+3.9) | 129.1 (+6.9) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -2.7 (+3.3) | 127.5 (+8.5) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 29, 2024 | UTA 80 – 72 TXST |
| Nov 25, 2023 | TXST 73 – 66 UTA |
| Jan 29, 2022 | TXST 58 – 53 UTA |
| Jan 28, 2022 | UTA 70 – 58 TXST |
| Feb 13, 2021 | TXST 79 – 68 UTA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXST | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-19 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 6-12 |
| Home | 4-10 | 6-8 |
| Away | 7-7 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 62.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 70.0 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#220) | -5.7 (#274) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#240) | -1.26 (#291) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#227) | -1.51 (#272) |
| RPI | 0.447 (#256) | 0.474 (#219) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXST | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 34.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 27.0% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 38.8% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.2% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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