Betting Lines
| Spread | UNI -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | UNI -475 ILST +380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNI +15 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | UNI -7.3 (+7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.7 (-18.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNI -5.8 (+9.2) | 155.0 (-12.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNI -4.7 (+10.3) | 155.6 (-12.6) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNI -5.2 (+9.8) | 155.2 (-12.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNI -4.8 (+10.2) | 155.6 (-12.6) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UNI 74 – 52 ILST |
| Feb 26, 2026 | ILST 71 – 69 UNI |
| Jan 22, 2026 | ILST 59 – 54 UNI |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UNI 68 – 65 ILST |
| Jan 12, 2025 | UNI 85 – 84 ILST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNI | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-4 | 11-6 |
| Away | 9-5 | 1-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 4.0 (#111) | 0.1 (#159) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#171) | -0.73 (#237) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#170) | -0.63 (#218) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#137) | 0.457 (#242) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNI | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 6.6 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 20.6% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 81.9% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.9% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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