Betting Lines
| Spread | TTU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TTU +26 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | TTU -8.5 (+17.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.3 (-9.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TTU -9.3 (+16.7) | 137.6 (-11.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TTU -9.7 (+16.3) | 142.4 (-16.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TTU -9.9 (+16.1) | 143.9 (-17.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TTU -9.0 (+17.0) | 141.9 (-15.9) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TTU | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-10 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 18-0 | 14-3 |
| Away | 3-8 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.6 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 15.8 (#16) | 10.6 (#41) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.16 (#11) | 1.56 (#67) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.05 (#13) | 1.83 (#71) |
| RPI | 0.581 (#54) | 0.571 (#70) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TTU | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.6% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 76.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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