Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +11 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -15.0 (-4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.0 (-8.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -12.8 (-1.8) | 142.8 (-7.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -12.5 (-1.5) | 143.3 (-8.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -12.6 (-1.6) | 143.0 (-8.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -13.2 (-2.2) | 142.0 (-7.0) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | SJU 89 – 57 VILL |
| Jan 18, 2026 | SJU 86 – 79 VILL |
| Feb 12, 2025 | VILL 73 – 71 SJU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | SJU 80 – 68 VILL |
| Jan 25, 2024 | SJU 70 – 50 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-8 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 8-11 |
| Home | 12-1 | 13-6 |
| Away | 8-5 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 10-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 79.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.7 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 18.7 (#8) | 7.1 (#79) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.01 (#14) | 1.28 (#84) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.91 (#15) | 2.11 (#58) |
| RPI | 0.632 (#13) | 0.531 (#116) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 23.7% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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