Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +9 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -5.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.7 (+19.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -5.3 (+3.7) | 135.5 (+17.5) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -5.3 (+3.7) | 135.2 (+17.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -5.9 (+3.1) | 136.1 (+16.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -5.7 (+3.3) | 134.6 (+18.4) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | OKST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 15-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-5 | 10-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 65.7 |
| Massey | 11.2 (#35) | 9.6 (#49) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.42 (#76) | 1.58 (#65) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.72 (#78) | 2.23 (#57) |
| RPI | 0.558 (#84) | 0.584 (#49) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | OKST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.7% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.2% | 24.6% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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