Betting Lines
| Spread | HOW -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOW +1 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | HOW -2.7 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.1 (-0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOW -1.4 (+0.4) | 144.8 (+4.2) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOW -0.8 (-0.2) | 145.1 (+3.9) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOW -1.1 (+0.1) | 145.8 (+3.2) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOW -1.5 (+0.5) | 146.8 (+2.2) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | HOW 70 – 63 NCCU |
| Feb 21, 2026 | HOW 100 – 67 NCCU |
| Jan 17, 2026 | HOW 83 – 69 NCCU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | NCCU 72 – 68 HOW |
| Feb 8, 2025 | HOW 82 – 78 NCCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCCU | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 16-13 |
| Conference | 8-5 | 9-5 |
| Home | 9-2 | 8-4 |
| Away | 5-11 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 73.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -6.3 (#276) | -0.3 (#169) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.18 (#268) | -1.33 (#280) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.04 (#296) | -1.11 (#249) |
| RPI | 0.450 (#265) | 0.416 (#313) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCCU | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 38.8% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 23.5% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 22.7% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.4% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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