Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CREI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +10 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | XAV -2.3 (-7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.3 (-0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -0.7 (-9.3) | 138.2 (-0.2) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -1.0 (-9.0) | 137.7 (+0.3) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -1.2 (-8.8) | 136.8 (+1.2) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -1.5 (-8.5) | 137.6 (+0.4) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | CREI 94 – 93 XAV |
| Dec 17, 2025 | CREI 98 – 57 XAV |
| Mar 1, 2025 | XAV 83 – 61 CREI |
| Jan 30, 2025 | CREI 86 – 77 XAV |
| Feb 10, 2024 | CREI 78 – 71 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CREI | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 12-7 | 8-11 |
| Home | 11-4 | 16-5 |
| Away | 6-5 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W5 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 69.2 |
| Massey | 7.8 (#73) | 13.5 (#21) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.06 (#43) | 2.76 (#22) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.00 (#31) | 3.40 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.569 (#72) | 0.618 (#21) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CREI | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 76.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.9% | 15.4% |
Game Analysis
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