Betting Lines
| Spread | TXSO -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXSO +1 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | TXSO -6.4 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.1 (+2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXSO -5.5 (+4.5) | 142.4 (+6.6) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXSO -5.9 (+4.9) | 142.1 (+6.9) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXSO -5.2 (+4.2) | 143.5 (+5.5) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXSO -7.3 (+6.3) | 142.3 (+6.7) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | PV 70 – 59 TXSO |
| Jan 31, 2026 | PV 85 – 78 TXSO |
| Mar 8, 2025 | TXSO 80 – 68 PV |
| Feb 1, 2025 | TXSO 79 – 63 PV |
| Mar 9, 2024 | TXSO 93 – 78 PV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PV | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-19 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 13-5 |
| Home | 5-4 | 7-2 |
| Away | 3-15 | 8-10 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 66.1 |
| Massey | -8.7 (#309) | 1.1 (#144) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.69 (#303) | -0.60 (#226) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.28 (#314) | -0.32 (#198) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#282) | 0.465 (#226) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PV | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.62 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 24.2% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 64.5% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.4% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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