Betting Lines
| Spread | KSU -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MISS +11 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | KSU -1.9 (+12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.8 (-1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KSU -1.0 (+12.0) | 129.9 (-6.9) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KSU -0.5 (+11.5) | 130.8 (-7.8) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | KSU -0.5 (+11.5) | 131.4 (-8.4) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KSU -0.5 (+11.5) | 131.9 (-8.9) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | KSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 6-12 |
| Home | 10-8 | 9-7 |
| Away | 2-7 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 67.5 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#119) | 8.4 (#65) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#133) | 1.41 (#77) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.73 (#123) | 2.06 (#61) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#169) | 0.528 (#127) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | KSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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