Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.0 Over |
| Money | UNC -340 NCSU +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +20 | 180 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -9.3 (+10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (+23.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -9.4 (+10.6) | 154.7 (+25.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -8.4 (+11.6) | 153.5 (+26.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -8.0 (+12.0) | 153.5 (+26.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -8.7 (+11.3) | 154.3 (+25.7) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | NCSU 82 – 58 UNC |
| Feb 20, 2025 | UNC 97 – 73 NCSU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | UNC 63 – 61 NCSU |
| Mar 17, 2024 | NCSU 84 – 76 UNC |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UNC 79 – 70 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-10 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 4-16 |
| Home | 15-2 | 7-10 |
| Away | 8-3 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 6-5 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.9 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 75.6 |
| Massey | 9.7 (#47) | 3.8 (#116) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.82 (#57) | 0.21 (#157) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.28 (#52) | 0.55 (#135) |
| RPI | 0.607 (#30) | 0.500 (#171) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.2% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 80.5% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.7% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.