Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | MSU -185 MICH +165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +16 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -6.0 (+10.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.4 (+13.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -6.1 (+9.9) | 137.4 (+12.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -6.7 (+9.3) | 138.0 (+12.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -6.3 (+9.7) | 137.3 (+12.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -6.0 (+10.0) | 137.9 (+12.1) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | MICH 90 – 80 MSU |
| Jan 31, 2026 | MICH 83 – 71 MSU |
| Mar 9, 2025 | MSU 79 – 62 MICH |
| Feb 22, 2025 | MSU 75 – 62 MICH |
| Feb 18, 2024 | MSU 73 – 63 MICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 11-9 |
| Home | 12-3 | 10-5 |
| Away | 5-6 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 13.8 (#20) | 11.1 (#36) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.29 (#9) | 1.46 (#72) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.43 (#6) | 2.03 (#63) |
| RPI | 0.645 (#8) | 0.577 (#62) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 40.1 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.3% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.