Betting Lines
| Spread | UTU -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | CHST +130 UTU -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CHST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTU +14 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | UTU -2.4 (-11.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.7 (+0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTU -3.4 (-10.6) | 144.5 (-0.5) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTU -2.4 (-11.6) | 146.1 (-2.1) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTU -2.6 (-11.4) | 148.1 (-4.1) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTU -2.6 (-11.4) | 147.7 (-3.7) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CHST | UTU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 6-12 |
| Home | 5-9 | 10-6 |
| Away | 2-15 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.1 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -12.7 (#338) | -6.9 (#285) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.81 (#312) | -0.90 (#253) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.39 (#319) | -1.24 (#259) |
| RPI | 0.420 (#307) | 0.457 (#243) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CHST | UTU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.0% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.61 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.6% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 23.3% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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