Betting Lines
| Spread | NCAT -6.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UPST +20 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | NCAT -5.3 (-25.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.4 (+2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCAT -3.7 (-23.7) | 142.7 (+5.3) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCAT -4.0 (-24.0) | 144.6 (+3.4) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NCAT -3.9 (-23.9) | 145.9 (+2.1) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCAT -3.8 (-23.8) | 144.1 (+3.9) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Game Analysis
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