Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +6 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -15.8 (-9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.1 (-20.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -12.5 (-6.5) | 150.6 (-16.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -12.3 (-6.3) | 151.1 (-17.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -13.5 (-7.5) | 151.4 (-17.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -12.9 (-6.9) | 153.1 (-19.1) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2026 | IDHO 78 – 74 MTST |
| Feb 6, 2026 | MTST 73 – 66 IDHO |
| Jan 10, 2026 | IDHO 92 – 89 MTST |
| Mar 4, 2025 | MTST 75 – 60 IDHO |
| Jan 3, 2025 | IDHO 69 – 64 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | IDHO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 6-14 |
| Home | 13-1 | 8-7 |
| Away | 9-6 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 80.3 |
| Massey | 1.3 (#141) | -11.2 (#330) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#129) | -2.35 (#334) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#129) | -2.54 (#324) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#130) | 0.394 (#330) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | IDHO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 77.6% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.6% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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