Betting Lines
| Spread | NKU -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | NKU -145 PFW +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NKU +10 | 108 | Won |
| Massey | NKU -2.1 (+7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.4 (-28.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NKU -1.7 (+8.3) | 135.3 (-27.3) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NKU -0.3 (+9.7) | 136.8 (-28.8) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NKU -0.8 (+9.2) | 138.5 (-30.5) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -0.2 (+10.2) | 137.4 (-29.4) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | NKU 87 – 71 PFW |
| Dec 6, 2025 | PFW 79 – 77 NKU |
| Feb 28, 2025 | NKU 79 – 74 PFW |
| Jan 1, 2025 | NKU 69 – 68 PFW |
| Jan 26, 2024 | PFW 63 – 58 NKU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NKU | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 15-6 |
| Home | 12-4 | 14-2 |
| Away | 7-7 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -5.7 (#271) | -4.4 (#251) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.38 (#281) | -0.83 (#247) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.01 (#294) | -1.24 (#260) |
| RPI | 0.433 (#289) | 0.462 (#233) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NKU | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 24.0% |
| FT Rate | 17.3% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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