Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | CSU -1000 UNLV +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +14 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | CSU -12.1 (-26.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.8 (+18.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -10.7 (-24.7) | 142.0 (+20.0) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -12.1 (-26.1) | 143.9 (+18.1) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -11.4 (-25.4) | 142.8 (+19.2) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -12.2 (-26.2) | 142.7 (+19.3) | 82% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | CSU 91 – 86 UNLV |
| Jan 10, 2026 | CSU 70 – 62 UNLV |
| Feb 23, 2025 | CSU 61 – 53 UNLV |
| Jan 11, 2025 | CSU 84 – 62 UNLV |
| Feb 25, 2024 | UNLV 66 – 60 CSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-6 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-1 | 14-4 |
| Away | 6-3 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 68.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 11.1 (#37) | 2.4 (#126) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.28 (#10) | 0.54 (#131) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.73 (#16) | 0.84 (#115) |
| RPI | 0.636 (#10) | 0.518 (#147) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.8% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 6.7 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.3% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 22.6% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 76.6% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.6% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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