Betting Lines
| Spread | NIU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CMU +6 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | NIU -9.2 (-15.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.8 (-7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NIU -7.2 (-13.2) | 143.8 (-11.8) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIU -7.3 (-13.3) | 144.2 (-12.2) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NIU -7.1 (-13.1) | 145.5 (-13.5) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NIU -6.7 (-12.7) | 143.7 (-11.7) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | CMU 88 – 46 NIU |
| Dec 20, 2025 | NIU 74 – 73 CMU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | NIU 83 – 81 CMU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | CMU 71 – 66 NIU |
| Mar 6, 2024 | CMU 69 – 63 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIU | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-21 | 7-23 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 6-12 |
| Home | 3-8 | 2-9 |
| Away | 6-11 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.1 | 65.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 77.0 |
| Massey | -8.6 (#307) | -14.5 (#346) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.07 (#262) | -2.23 (#331) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.36 (#267) | -3.18 (#339) |
| RPI | 0.456 (#245) | 0.426 (#300) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIU | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 55.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.5% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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