Betting Lines
| Spread | LSU -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TCU +9 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | LSU -6.9 (+15.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.9 (+25.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LSU -3.2 (+12.2) | 129.1 (+15.9) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LSU -2.8 (+11.8) | 127.0 (+18.0) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LSU -2.5 (+11.5) | 128.3 (+16.7) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LSU -1.0 (+10.0) | 128.4 (+16.6) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TCU | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-4 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.9 | 63.4 |
| Massey | 8.8 (#60) | 19.1 (#7) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.27 (#36) | 3.01 (#15) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.81 (#37) | 3.68 (#17) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#71) | 0.651 (#6) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TCU | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 41.5 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 14.2 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 38.6% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 42.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 25.7% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.3% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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