Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +9 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -3.7 (+12.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.2 (+11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -2.1 (+11.1) | 150.6 (+14.4) | 37% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -0.8 (+9.8) | 149.1 (+15.9) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -1.6 (+10.6) | 150.4 (+14.6) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -1.2 (+10.2) | 151.2 (+13.8) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 27-7 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 14-4 |
| Home | 13-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 3-7 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.5 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 64.1 |
| Massey | 14.1 (#19) | 21.1 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.31 (#33) | 3.93 (#2) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.99 (#32) | 5.17 (#2) |
| RPI | 0.662 (#3) | 0.625 (#17) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 40.5 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.9 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 36.5% | 37.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 16.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 25.2% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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