Betting Lines
| Spread | AMCC -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NWST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NWST +14 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | AMCC -7.4 (+21.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.1 (+15.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMCC -5.9 (+19.9) | 147.5 (+18.5) | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMCC -7.5 (+21.5) | 147.5 (+18.5) | 21% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AMCC -7.3 (+21.3) | 147.3 (+18.7) | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMCC -7.5 (+21.5) | 148.8 (+17.2) | 22% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | AMCC 71 – 59 NWST |
| Jan 10, 2026 | NWST 79 – 78 AMCC |
| Mar 10, 2025 | NWST 66 – 63 AMCC |
| Jan 14, 2025 | AMCC 73 – 64 NWST |
| Feb 20, 2024 | AMCC 72 – 61 NWST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NWST | AMCC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 5-9 | 7-7 |
| Home | 6-6 | 9-4 |
| Away | 2-13 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.6 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -13.1 (#340) | -2.3 (#219) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.68 (#343) | -0.11 (#186) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.12 (#338) | -0.27 (#195) |
| RPI | 0.436 (#285) | 0.456 (#246) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NWST | AMCC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 14.2% | 30.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.1% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 26.1% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 30.1% |
Game Analysis
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