We are not monsters, we're moral people / And yet we have the strength to do this. "Nemesis" - Shriekback
Buccaneer Fieldhouse · January 29, 2022
Betting Lines
O/U 138.0 Over
Money CHSO -140 / HAMP +120
Model Predictions
Spread Total CHSO win
Actual HAMP +4 152 Lost
Massey HAMP -1.6 (-2.4) — —
Massey Totals — 132.6 (+19.4) —
Bradley-Terry — — 49% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 60% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ HAMP -1.0 (-3.0) 137.8 (+14.2) 48% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML HAMP -0.7 (-3.3) 133.2 (+18.8) 42% ✓
Baseline ML HAMP -0.2 (-3.8) 132.7 (+19.3) 49% ✓
Baseline Plus ML CHSO -0.0 (-4.0) 134.4 (+17.6) 50% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 22, 2020 HAMP 70 – 68 CHSO
Dec 22, 2020 HAMP 67 – 55 CHSO

Game Analysis

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