Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -9.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +4 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | SDST -12.9 (-8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.0 (-1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -10.7 (-6.7) | 156.2 (-0.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -12.0 (-8.0) | 155.4 (+0.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -11.9 (-7.9) | 155.9 (+0.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -11.9 (-7.9) | 158.3 (-2.3) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | NDSU 74 – 66 SDST |
| Jan 15, 2026 | NDSU 76 – 65 SDST |
| Feb 20, 2025 | NDSU 77 – 68 SDST |
| Jan 31, 2025 | SDST 72 – 62 NDSU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | SDST 78 – 61 NDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDST | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-5 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 18-0 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-0 | 12-3 |
| Away | 10-3 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.7 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 8.0 (#71) | -1.6 (#201) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.57 (#66) | 0.31 (#148) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.69 (#81) | 0.15 (#161) |
| RPI | 0.580 (#57) | 0.508 (#160) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDST | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.0% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 45.0% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.2% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 12.8% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.8% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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